Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
